黑河流域出山径流模拟

国际水文科学协会已提出针对干旱半干旱区的"无资料地区的水文预测"项目。水已成为制约西北干旱半干旱区社会经济发展和生活改善的主要因素。预测全球变化和人类活动下的水循环过程和水资源变化格局是重要的。文中以黑河上游为研究区,应用IHACRES模型模拟黑河上游降水-径流过程。结果表明:IHACRES模型可以较好地模拟研究区的日出山径流量;率定期确定性系数达0.766,验证期确定性系数为0.71;确定黑河上游地区的基流指数为0.539;黑河上游经莺落峡水文站向中游输送水量为14.9亿m3,其中地表径流与基流分别占46.1%和53.9%;模型模拟受流域面积大及降雪等因素影响,使模拟精度降低;最后指出IHACRES模型适合缺乏资料地区水文模拟的研究。

Simulation of daily streamflow from the Heihe watershed

It's important to predict the processes of water circle and pattern of water resource change under the global change and human activity.In this paper the upper reaches of the Heihe watershed was selected as the study area,The model of IHACRES was applied to simulate the rainfall-runoff processes.The results showed that IHACRES model simulated the daily streamflow well;In the calibration and validation period,the value of D was 0.766 and 0.71;the value of Base Flow Index(BFI) was determined to be 0.539;The simulated daily flow indicated that the Heihe river discharged about 1.49 billion m 3 of water from the upper reaches to the middle reaches,with the surface runoff and baseflow contributing 46.1% and 53.9% respectively.Meanwhile,the simulated result shows that some factors like catchment area and snow had effects on the performance of IHACRES model,they made simulation accuracy reduced.At last,it indicated that IHACRES model is applicable to areas where observed data is limited.