岩溶生态脆弱区水安全动态模拟及其演变机制

目的]揭示影响贵州省城市水安全的主要驱动因子,为贵州省相关部门提供参考和科学依据。方法]基于系统动力学方法建立水安全系统模型,仿真模拟贵州省水安全系统的贵阳模式、遵义模式、毕节模式和协调型模式4种不同模式下的水资源子系统、水环境子系统、水灾害子系统的发展演变规律。结果]农业灌溉用水定额、水土流失面积比、水质达标率和环境资本投资率是贵州省水安全系统的主要驱动因子;在协调型模式下,贵州省水安全系统在2025年以前处于最佳状态,比其他3种模式优越。结论]在不同情景模式的模拟下,只有在协调型模式下水资源子系统、水环境子系统、水灾害子系统处于最佳状态,能够获得最大的经济效益和环境效益。

Development Simulation of Water Security and Its Evolvement Law in Karst Ecological Fragile Area

Objective] The impact factors of urban water security in Guizhou Province were studied to provide basis for policy-making of local government. Methods] A water security system model for Guizhou Province, China was established using system dynamics(SD) method. In the model, data of water security system from 2005 to 2025 were used and four scenarios(Guiyang model, Zunyi model, Bijie model and concerted development model) were analyzed. Results] The major driving factors of the water security system in Guizhou Province included the agricultural irrigation water quota, soil and water losses area, ratio up to the standard of water quality and the investment of environmental protection. The concerted development model is the best solution for water security system by 2025 in Guizhou Province for the four scenarios. Conclusion] In terms of water resource, water environment and water disaster, the concerted development model was proved to be a profitable solution both in economy and environment.