政府支出对扩大农村消费的动态效应分析

政府支出对居民消费到底会产生挤出效应还是挤入效应一直是理论界争论的焦点。在全球金融危机的背景下,我国再度实施积极财政政策以启动农村消费市场,扩大国内需求。本文运用可变参数模型就1992~2006年政府支出对农村居民消费的影响进行了动态分析。研究发现:1992~1994年,政府支出对农村居民的消费产生挤出效应;1995~2006年,政府支出对农村居民的消费产生挤入效应,且这种挤入效应呈不断上升的趋势;从总体来看政府支出有利于促进农村消费需求的增长。因此,我国当前实施的积极财政政策对扩大农村消费需求是有效且必要的。

Analysis of the Dynamic Effects of Government Expenditure on the Expansion of Consumption in Rural Areas

Whether government expenditure would have crowding-out or crowding-in effects on household consumption has been a debating focus of the theoretical circles. By using Variable-parameter model and the data of China's government financial expenditure, this paper analyses the dynamic impact of government expenditure on expanding consumption of rural residents from 1992 to 2006. Results show that the government spending has a crowding-out effect on consumption of rural residents in the period of 1992～1994, while it has a crowding-in effect on consumption of rural residents in the period of 1995～2006. In the long run, the government's fiscal expenditure will contribute to the increase of consumption in the rural areas. Therefore, a conclusion can be drawn that against the backdrop of financial crisis, the positive fiscal policies adopted by the Chinese government presently are to effectively increase the consumption demand in the rural areas.