三江平原水资源承载力评价及区域差异

为了定量评价三江平原水资源承载力，指导区域农业生产规模和社会经济发展，该文在构建三江平原水资源承载力评价指标体系和确定评价标准的基础上，采用基于粒子群优化算法的投影寻踪评价模型对三江平原水资源承载力进行综合评价和承载力所属等级的判定，并借助ArcGIS的可视化功能实现三江平原区划内6市1县的水资源承载力区域差异分析。评价和分析结果表明，2008年三江平原区域整体水资源承载力处于III级，区划内的双鸭山市、七台河市和穆棱市水资源承载力处于II级，水资源承载力较强，水资源处于弱无压力状态；鸡西市、鹤岗市、佳木斯市和依兰县水资源承载力处于III级，水资源承载力中等，水资源开发利用和社会经济发展处于协调状态。随着区域社会经济的快速发展，应结合水资源承载力评价结果和区域特点，制定科学合理的水资源开发利用方案，以保证水资源对社会经济发展的可持续供给能力。

Evaluation and regional differences of water resources carrying capacity in Sanjiang plain

For the purpose of quantitatively evaluating water resources carrying capacity in the Sanjiang plain and directing the regional agricultural production scale and socioeconomic development, the evaluation index system and criteria were established firstly. Then the projection pursuit evaluation model based on particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to comprehensively evaluate and classify water resources carrying capacity in the Sanjiang plain. Finally the regional differences of water resources carrying capacity of six cities and one town in the Sanjiang plain were analyzed by utilizing the visualization function of ArcGIS software. The results indicated that the water resources carrying capacity of the whole area of Sanjiang plain in 2008 belonged to grade III. Shuangyashan city, Qitaihe city and Muling city belonged to grade II which implied high carrying capacity and weak non-pressure state of water resources, and Jixi city, Hegang city, Jiamusi city and Yilan town belonged to grade III which implied moderate carrying capacity and compatible state between water resources exploitation and socioeconomic development. Along with the rapid growth of regional society and economy, a scientific and reasonable exploitation and development program of water resources could be made by using the results of the research to guarantee a continuable supply capacity of water resources for socioeconomic development.