气候变化对黑龙江玉米产量贡献份额研究

应用AEZ模型计算得到的1980—2009年逐年光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力作为气候变化影响因素,结合搜集到的1980—2009年黑龙江玉米生产的经济社会要素,本研究构建了主成分分析模型进行气候变化对玉米单产的贡献分析。结果表明:"气候变化及应对措施"主成分影响占到10%略多,"经济社会"主成分贡献率最大,达到50%以上;"传统投入"主成分贡献率约17%;相比较"经济社会"和"传统投入"主成分而言,"气候变化及应对措施"贡献份额最低。"气候变化及应对措施"1980—2009年的主成分得分呈现不规则波动,没有明显上升或下降趋势,表明气候的实际作用不明显。同时,该主成分得分与黑龙江玉米产量变化没有相关性;与黑龙江玉米产量呈线性相关的是"经济社会"主成分。

Study on the contribution portion of climate change on the maize productivities of Heilongjiang province

First,this paper calculates the light-temperature potential productivity(LTPP) and climatic potential productivity(CPP) of maize of Heilongjiang province during 1980-2009 by using the crop growth model of FAO AEZ-project.Taking the calculation results of LTPP and CPP as climates change factors,combined with the main social economic data,principal component model was used to analyze the contribution portion of climate change factors and social economic factors to maize yield.The results divide the factors into four groups.These four groups are the four principal components of the model.The "climate change and response" component accounts for about 10%,the "social economic" component accounts for more than 50%,the "traditional input" component accounts for about 17%.The values of the "climate change and response" component during 1980-2009 are irregular,without a significant increasing or decreasing trends,that means this component had no obvious influence on maize yield.However,the "social economic" component had close relationship with maize yield in Heilongjiang province.