时间序列分析在蚕种销售中的应用研究

基于探讨广西蚕区家蚕普通种销售市场发展规律,为广西蚕业生产的宏观管理提供决策依据的目的,采用时间序列季节性乘积模型对家蚕普通种销售市场的发展变化规律进行了研究。依据广西蚕区2004-2006年36个月份的每月蚕种销售数量,运用社会科学统计软件包(SPSS)软件进行时间序列分析,建立了广西蚕区家蚕普通种市场销售规律的统计预测模型,即季节性乘积求和自回归滑动平均模型:AR IMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12,并通过白噪声检验。利用该模型对广西蚕区2006-2007年家蚕普通种每月销售量进行了预测,得到较为准确的预测结果。

An Applied Study on Temporal Analysis to Sales of Silkworm Eggs

To find out the development regularity of silkworm eggs′ sales volume and provide advice for management of sericulture in Guangxi,we employed a temporal analysis with multiplicative seasonal model(the combination of stochastic seasonal model and ARIMA model) and multivariate statistical method to study changes of silkworm eggs′ sales volume in Guangxi Province.The temporal analysis on silkworm eggs′ sales volume per month in Guangxi from 2004 to 2006 was done with SPSS software,and a statistical model,ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12,was established.This model had passed the white noise test,and can be used to predict sales volumes of silkworm eggs in Guangxi Province.We had used this model to predict sales volume of silkworm eggs in Guangxi in 2006 and 2007,and fairly accurate prediction results had been obtained.