基于灾变链式理论的日光温室黄瓜霜霉病警源追溯模型研究

追溯警源是日光温室蔬菜病害预警中提供排警措施的依据。结合灾变链式理论和植物病害流行学,对日光温室黄瓜病害警源追溯问题及孕源断链减灾模式进行了系统分析。考虑到日光温室作物病害预警对象多警源的特点及其对预警解释推理方式的影响,采用数字化方法,构建了易于系统实现的日光温室黄瓜霜霉病警源追溯模型。对日光温室黄瓜霜霉病实例进行追溯分析,结果表明,外界出现的阴雨雪雾天气是导致该实例中霜霉病发生的警源。并可用方差分析来检测日光温室环境的时空突变,以验证警源信息。该模型能够为日光温室黄瓜霜霉病排警措施提供决策支持。

A disease warning-source traceability model based on disaster chain-styled theory for solar greenhouse cucumber downy mildew

Warning-source traceability provides basis for disease early warning in solar greenhouse vegetables. Using disaster chain-styled theory and plant epidemiological theory, disease warning-source traceability problems and disaster mitigation modes by cutting the disaster chain were systematically analyzed. The disease warning-source traceability model was tested for cucumber downy mildew in solar greenhouse conditions. The model took into account the multi-warning-sources of disease early warning under solar greenhouse conditions and their effects on the interpretation ways of disease early warning. The instance of cucumber downy mildew under solar greenhouse conditions was tracked and analyzed using the disease warning-source traceability model. The study shows that overcast, rainy, snowy and foggy weather conditions are the warning-sources of cucumber downy mildew. The spatial and temporal variability of solar greenhouse environment was detected, and then warning-sources information was determined. The model could provide decision-making support for obviating downy mildew disease situations in solar greenhouse cucumber.