皖南烟叶大田生育期气候条件动态评价研究

为开发能较好评价皖南烟叶大田期年度气候条件的方法,反映光温水气候因子对皖南地区烟叶生长过程的综合影响,根据烟叶的生长规律和气候条件,构建光温水气候影响函数,用主成分分析(PCA)分析演变规律,并用PCA方法确定光温水在烟叶各发育阶段的影响权重,构建烟叶气候综合影响函数.以2012年资料为实例,先分旬计算温度、降水和日照时数单因子气候影响函数和综合气候影响函数,绘制旬气候函数影响历史演变图,再计算气候要素距平,最后通过归纳汇总,分析皖南烟叶大田期气候条件对烟叶生长的影响.用气候影响函数绘制气候影响效果历史演变图,能直观地反映烟叶生育进程中光温水条件的变化对烟叶生长的影响效果,与评价常用的气候距平法结合,可分析出气候条件对烟叶生长和产量质量影响的过程、程度和成因,具有客观定量的优点,又由于它以气候平均值为基础,便于进行年际和不同地域差异的比较,评价用语标准、通俗,方便服务利用,对开展烟草长势趋势预测和评估、总结烟叶生产管理经验和促进烟叶气候资源合理利用会有帮助,同时,本研究所提供的方法也是一种能提高识别气候变化主因准确度的方法.

Study on the Each Developmental Climate Condition Evaluation in the Tobacco Field Growing Period in Wannan Area

To developing a better method of evaluating annual climatic conditions in tobacco field growing period, temperature, precipitation and sunshine times were taken as climate elements in tobacco growth process in Wannan Area. According to the tobacco growth philosophy and climate conditions, the single factor climate influence function was built, and then the comprehensive influence function was built by using with the principal component analysis (PCA) for determining the influencing weights and main factors of each tobacco developmental stage. Using 2012 data as an example, by calculating the 10-days climate influence function, drawing histogram, calculating climate anomaly and then summarizing, the analysis of climatic condition was made in the tobacco field growing period. As was the example with the histogram, it is available that made it easier to give a picture of each developmental climate effect in the growth of field tobacco. Combing with the convention climate anomaly method, the climatic influence process, content and cause in the tobacco field growing period were easier found. It also had the objective and quantitative advantages. Being with its climate average value as the basis, it can facilitate the difference of interannual and make different regional comparison available. The evaluation terms were standard and popular. It is continent for service utilization, and it also benefitted to accumulate the tobacco production management experience and promote the rational use of climatic resources in tobacco planting.