Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models |
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Authors: | Brian R Miranda Brian R Sturtevant Jian Yang Eric J Gustafson |
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Institution: | (1) Institute for Applied Ecosystem Studies, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 5985 Highway K, Rhinelander, WI 54501, USA;(2) Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada-Reno, 1000 Valley Road, MS 186, Reno, NV 89512, USA |
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Abstract: | We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented
by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate
this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by a more
detailed fire behavior model from which the simpler algorithm was derived. Equivalence testing allows objective comparisons
of the output of simple and complex models, to determine if the results are significantly similar. Neutral landscape models
represent a range of landscape conditions that the model may encounter, allowing evaluation of the sensitivity and behavior
of the model to different landscape compositions and configurations. We first tested the model for universal applicability,
then narrowed the testing to assess the practical domain of applicability. As a whole, the calibrated simple model passed
the test for significant equivalence using the 25% threshold. When applied to a range of landscape conditions different from
the calibration scenarios, the model failed the tests for equivalence. Although our particular model failed the tests, the
neutral landscape models were helpful in determining an appropriate domain of applicability and in assessing the model sensitivity
to landscape changes. Equivalence testing provides an effective method for model comparison, and coupled with neutral landscapes,
our approach provides an objective way to assess the domain of applicability of a spatial model. |
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Keywords: | Equivalence Fire model Meta-model Neutral landscape Scale |
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