| BP神经网络在郑州市旱灾预测中的应用及防灾减灾对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 周振民,谢滨帆.BP神经网络在郑州市旱灾预测中的应用及防灾减灾对策[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 周振民 谢滨帆 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电学院,郑州,450011 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50579020) |
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| 摘 要： | 旱灾作为普遍性的自然灾害，已经严重影响到了我国的工农业生产、城市供水和生态环境。选取郑州市作为研究区，建立BP神经网络预测模型，预测郑州市未来10a的降水量，并采用Z指数法分析历年旱灾情况。研究结果表明，BP网络应用于降水量预测是合理可行的，采用Z指数法能很好地反应旱灾情况，该模型对预测郑州旱灾发生情况具有重要参考价值。最后，根据研究结果提出了郑州市防灾减灾的对策。
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| 关 键 词： | 郑州市 BP神经网络 Z指数 旱灾预测 防灾成灾 |
Application of BP Neural Network to Drought Disaster Prediction and Countermeasures for Disaster Prevention and Relief in Zhengzhou |
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| ZHOU Zhen-min,XIE Bin-fan.Application of BP Neural Network to Drought Disaster Prediction and Countermeasures for Disaster Prevention and Relief in Zhengzhou[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011(12). |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Zhen-min XIE Bin-fan |
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| Institution: | ZHOU Zhen-min,XIE Bin-fan(North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Zhengzhou 450011,China) |
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| Abstract: | As a common natural disaster,drought affects national industry and agriculture urban water supply and eco-environment seriously.Taking Zhengzhou as the study area,this paper establishes the BP neural network prediction model to predict the precipitation in the next ten years in Zhengzhou,and analyzes droughts by using Z index.The results show that BP neural network is reasonable and feasible,and Z index can clearly reflect droughts.The model has an important reference value for predicting droughts in Zhengz... |
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| Keywords: | Zhengzhou BP neural network Z index drought disaster prediction countermeasures for disaster prevention and disaster relief |
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