城乡收入差距与农村劳动力就业的Granger因果检验——以寿光市为例

以山东省寿光市为例,研究了城乡收入与农村劳动力就业的相互关系。利用统计数据,进行变量序列的协整检验与Granger因果检验,结果表明,农村劳动力年均收入影响农村居民人均收入,后者与职工平均工资存在Granger因果关系。从事农林牧渔业生产使得寿光农村人均总收入高于寿光乃至潍坊市的城镇居民平均工资,收入角度的比较利益使得城市对寿光农村居民不具有吸引力,极大地减小了农村劳动力就业和转移压力。从而指出大力推进农业产业化,提高农村居民收入,改善农村居民生活条件是促进农村劳动力就业和就地转移的重要途径。

Granger Causality Test of Urban-rural Income Gap and Employment of Rural Labour Forces

Taking Shouguang City in Shandong Province as an example,this article researches the mutual relationship between urban-rural income and employment of rural labour forces,and conducting cointegration test and Granger causality test on the variable sequences using statistical data.The results show that the average annual income of rural labour forces influences the income per capita of rural residents,and there is a Granger causality relationship between the income per capita of rural residents and urban employees' average wage.Engaging in production concerning agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery makes the total income per capita in rural areas of Shouguang City higher than the average wage of urban residents in Shouguang City,even in Weifang City.The comparative advantage in terms of income causes the city to loose attraction to rural residents in Shouguang City.The comparative advantage drives more rural labour forces in Shouguang City to engage in primary industry,thereby greatly reducing the pressure of employment and transfer of rural labour forces.Finally important following measures are put forward to promote employment and on-the-spot transfer of rural labour forces: vigorously propel agricultural industrialization;increase rural residents' income;improve the living conditions for rural residents.