长江流域农业主产区农村人均耕地经营规模时空变化研究

分析了2000～2009年长江流域农业主产区农村人均耕地经营规模变化,结果表明,时间维度上,农村人均耕地经营规模以2004年为分界点,2004年之前农村人均耕地经营规模变化差异大,且多不稳定;2004年之后其变化趋于一致,且较稳定。空间维度上,与2000～2003年相比,2004～2009年人均耕地经营规模增加的省市明显增多,且增加的省市多位于长江中上游地区,下游除安徽省增加外,其他省市继续减少。研究区人均耕地经营规模与农村人口比重表现为正反2种比例关系,10个省市人均耕地经营规模随农村人口比重的变化呈现3种变化趋势。短期内,人均耕地经营规模将延续现有的发展趋势,但其增加或减少的速率会放缓。

Research on Tempo-spatial Changes of Per Capita Rural Farmland Scale in Major Agricultural Producing Areas in Yangtze River Basin

The paper analyzed the data about the per capita rural farmland scale in major agricultural producing areas in Yangtze River basin.As indicated by the results,on the time dimension,the per capita rural farmland scale changed greatly and was unstable before 2004,while changed consistently and became stable after 2004.Compared with 2000-2003,the per capita farmland area increased in more provinces and cities during 2004-2009,and most of the provinces and cities concentrated around the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River,in addition to an increase in Anhui Province,the other provinces in the downstream continued to fall.The per capita farmland scale and the rural population in the study area showed both positive and negative relations.The change of per capita farmland scale in 10 provinces and cities with rural population presented three change trends.In a word,the per capita arable land will continue the existing scale of development trend in the short term,but the rate of increase or decrease will slow down.