气候变化条件下木瓜秀粉蚧在中国的潜在适生区预测

为明确木瓜秀粉蚧Paracoccus marginatus Williams et Granara de Willink 1922在中国的潜在适生区，基于中国820个气象站点的气象数据和未来气候变化数据，结合木瓜秀粉蚧的生物学特性，利用CLIMEX模型对该虫在中国当前气候以及未来气候条件下的潜在适生区进行预测。结果显示，木瓜秀粉蚧在中国的潜在适生区主要在南方，适生区面积占全国陆地总面积的9.07%。高适生区主要包括海南省、广东省南部、广西壮族自治区南部以及福建省和云南省小部分地区。在未来气候条件下，2050年木瓜秀粉蚧的潜在适生区将进一步扩大，适生区面积所占比例将增加至15.46%，且有向北移动的趋势。表明木瓜秀粉蚧对中国南方地区的农业潜在威胁巨大，建议将该虫增补为检疫对象，并加强检疫监管和种群动态监测。

Potential distribution of papaya mealybug Paracoccus marginatus in China under global warming

To clarify the potential suitable regions for papaya mealybug Paracoccus marginatus Williams et Granara de Willink 1922 in China, CLIMEX model was used to predict the current and future distribution of P. marginatus considering climate data and the biological properties of the papaya mealybug. The results showed that the potential distribution of P. marginatus in China is predominantly in the southern regions, accounting for 9.07% of the total land area. Highly suitable areas for P. marginatus include Hainan, the south of Guangdong and Guangxi, as well as specific regions in Fujian and Yunnan provinces. Under global warming, it is predicted that by 2050, the suitable areas for this mealybug will increase to 15.46%, expanding northwards. These findings raise concerns about the potential severe impact of this mealybug on agricultural production in southern China. Therefore, it is recommended that P. marginatus be included in the quarantine pest list, and effects should be made to strengthen quarantine supervision and population dynamics monitoring.