气候变化背景下烟草粉斑螟入侵中国的全程风险评估

为制订烟草粉斑螟Ephestia elutella的精准管理方案，从入侵阶段出发，基于收集的生物学及生态学信息以及MaxEnt模型对烟草粉斑螟入侵中国的跨境传入风险、定殖适生风险以及扩散暴发风险进行评估，并提出相应的风险管理措施。结果表明，烟草粉斑螟个体体积小，为害隐蔽不易识别，传入途径多样，具有高跨境传入风险；未来气候条件下其在全球及在中国的总适生区面积呈扩张趋势，具有高定殖适生风险；其繁殖能力强，寄主广泛，传播途径广，为害后果严重，具有高扩散暴发风险，最终评估烟草粉斑螟入侵中国的全程风险水平为高风险水平。应采取科学的监测和防控方法，分阶段精准防控烟草粉斑螟入侵，警惕其进一步扩散为害。

Thorough risk assessment of tobacco moth Ephestia elutella in China under the climate change environment

In order to develop precise management plans for tobacco moth Ephestia elutella, the risks of cross-border introduction, establishment, and explosion starting from the invasion process were assessed, and consistent risk management measures were proposed based on the collection of biological and ecological information, with MaxEnt model. The results revealed a high cross-border risk of E. elutella, attributed to its small body size, hidden damage, and diverse pathways. The total suitable areas of E. elutella showed a tendency of global expansion under future climate conditions, particularly in China, indicating a high-risk level for establishment. The species was thought to pose a high risk of explosion, given its high reproductive capacity, wide range of hosts, extensive pathways, and severe consequences upon invasion. In conclusion, E. elutella was thought to have high overall risk of invasion in China. It is recommended to adopt scientific monitoring, prevention, and control methods, and to implement accurate measures in a phased manner to prevent its further expansion and damage.