近期国内棉花市场行情分析与展望

受政策调整预期、植棉成本不断上升、种植业结构调整等因素影响,2014年中国棉花播种面积普遍下降。2014年以来,皮棉价格震荡下行,国内外价差缩小;棉花临储工作全部完成,收储630.7万t;棉花进口量大幅减少,国内纺纱量有所增长,纺织品服装出口略有恢复。棉花目标价格政策对市场影响尚未完全展现,未来市场不确定性仍然较大。受国内经济增速放缓、棉花目标价格政策和储备棉投放新政实施等多种因素影响,预计短期内国内棉花价格将继续下行。

Recent Domestic Cotton Market and Its Prospect

Due to the expected policy changes, the constant increase of cotton cultivation cost and the adjustment of crop farming structure, sowing area of cotton generally declined in 2014. Since 2014, lint cotton price has decreased shockingly, price difference between home and abroad has narrowed; the temporary storage work has finished with 6 307 000 tons stored; cotton import has largely reduced, the amount of domestic spinning has increased, the textile clothing export has slightly recovered. The influence of the cotton target price policy has not been yet fully revealed, and the uncertainty of the future market still exists. Affected by the slowdown of domestic economy, the implementation of the cotton target price policy and the delivery of cotton reserves, domestic cotton price in the short term is expected to continue its decrease trend.