中国海洋捕捞能力的量化研究及量化方法的讨论

用PTP法和DEA法分别对中国海洋渔业的捕捞能力进行了量化研究。指出在中国使用PTP法计算海洋捕捞能力时,以渔船功率为投入单位要较以渔船数为投入单位计算得到值更符合实际。进一步的分析明确了中国海洋捕捞能力的过剩首先是渔船功率的过剩。结果表明:若在1999年海洋捕捞渔获量的基础上实行产量“零增长”,则中国海洋捕捞渔船数的削减幅度应为35.2％,渔船总吨位的削减幅度应为29.8％,而总功率的削减幅度要达到37.3％。提出了“补充峰值年”的新方法,认为PTP法的适用背景是市场经济比较完善条件下的海洋捕捞业。更适于进行纵向的时间序列的分析。而DEA法则适合于在一个时间点上进行横向的“能力”估算。分析表明:基于实际捕捞量的捕捞能力一般总是被低估,故实际要削减的捕捞能力的量总是大于计算值。

Study on the measures of the marine fishing capacity of Chinese Fleets and discussion on the measuring methods

By the methods of FTP and DEA, the marine fishing capacity in China was studied in quantity. The results showed that: it is better that the input index in the FTP methodology was considered as total power but not as amount of ships in measuring the Chinese marine fishing capacity. The further analyses made it clearer that the great excess of marine fishing capacity in China is the total power of fishing ships. Then, this paper suggested that the 35.2 % amount of ships, 29.8 % gross tonnage and 37.3 % total power should be curtailed in China, so as to the present marine catch equal to that in 1999. In discussion the approach of supplement peak year was proposed. This paper found that the FTP methodology is suitable to market economy and is better as a longitudinal analysis in time arrays, but the DBA approach is applicable to the transverse comparison of fishing capacity in a same time period. The analyses showed also; the capacity, which has been based on the practical catch, is commonly lowly estimated. So the fishing capacity reduced in practice is generally larger than the calculated values.