苹果全爪螨种群发生高峰日的模糊测报

本研究利用了北京近郊自1977年来9年的资料,取每年5月份月平均气温(℃)和月平均降水量(mm)作为预报因子,6月份苹果全爪螨种群发生的第一个大高峰日为预报对象组建模糊预报模型。其预报结果用于指导对叶螨的防治。近两年来的应用表明,测报结果与实查结果相吻合。同时还表明,在该叶螨与山楂叶螨混合发生情况下,可根据各自种群第一个大高峰日出现的时间关系,指导对山楂叶螨的防治。

A FUZZY FORECAST MODEL FOR THE FIRST MAIN PEAK OCCURRENCE DAY OF EUROPEAN RED MITE ON APPLE TREE

Based on the nine year data since 1977 from suburb of Beijing City, a fuzzy forecast model (?)develoned,with mean temperature and precipitation in May as its factors and the first main (?)oceurrcace day in June of European red mite Panonychus ulmi(Koch) population as its target. The results of two year examinations showed that the estimation values coincided with the reali- (?) mdicated that the model can be used for determining the spraying time of miticides. It was (?) indicated that based on the time relation between the first main peak occurrence days of Eu- (?) red mite and hawthorn spider mite Tetranychus viennensis Zacher, as there.iwas mixed occur- (?) of the two mites, the control time of the latter can be relevantly determined.