济南地区近30年气温变化特征分析

目的]分析近30年济南地区气温变化特征。方法]利用济南市所辖6个国家级地面气象观测站1981～2010年的气温资料,运用线性倾向估计方法,分析近30年来济南地区的气温变化特征。结果]近30年济南地区年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,年平均最低气温增温趋势最明显,倾向率达0.502℃/10a;年平均气温次之,倾向率为0.288℃/10a;年平均最高气温增温趋势最为缓慢,其倾向率仅为0.144℃/10a。章丘的年平均最低气温上升最为明显,倾向率达1.347℃/10a;说明济南地区年平均气温的上升主要在于年平均最低气温的贡献,章丘为单个站点中贡献最大。就单个站点而言,济南市区在年平均气温、年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温中,气温上升倾向率均较小,在济南地区整个气温变化中济南市区贡献最小。结论]该研究为济南市开展气候变化监测、诊断、评估、预估以及决策提供科学依据。

Study on Temperature Changes in Jinan in Recent 30 years

Objective] The aim was to study temperature changes in Jinan in recent 30 years.Method] By dint of temperature from 1981 to 2010 in six national ground meteorological observation stations in Jinan,and based on linear evaluation method,temperature changes in Jinan in recent 30 years were discussed.Result] The mean annual temperature,mean annual highest temperature and mean annual lowest temperature were rising in recent 30 years.Mean annual lowest temperature was increasing and its tendency rate was 0.502 ℃/10a,followed by mean annual temperature whose tendency rate was 0.288 ℃/10a.Mean annual highest temperature increased most slowly and its tendency rate was 0.144 ℃/10a.The mean annual lowest temperature rose most significantly in Zhangqiu and its tendency rate was 1.347 ℃/10a.This indicated that the rising mean annual temperature in Jinan was due to the mean annual lowest temperature.The contribution of Zhangqiu City to the temperature changes in the entire Jinan was the largest.For single station,mean annual temperature,mean annual highest temperature and mean annual lowest temperature,temperature rising tendency was small and its contribution was the smallest.Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the observation,diagnosis,evaluation and decision-making of climate changes in Jinan.