山东诸城市近50年气候变化特征分析

目的]分析1961～2010年山东诸城市气候变化特征。方法]选用诸城市1961～2010年的气温与降水资料,采用线性倾向估计方法分析其年、季变化特征。结果]诸城市近50年平均气温以0.383℃/10a的速度上升,各季平均气温均呈上升趋势,增温幅度为冬季>秋季>春季>夏季;近50年平均降水量以18.7 mm/10a的速度下降,春季、冬季略呈上升趋势,夏季、秋季呈下降趋势,且夏季下降最为明显,以20.9 mm/10a递减。近50年气温异常低温仅出现1年,异常高温出现了7年,均出现在20世纪90年代以后;近50年未出现降水异常偏少年份,降水异常偏多年份为6年,年总降水量呈下降趋势,说明降水量时空分布极为不均。结论]该研究为提高气温和降水预报准确率提供依据。

Analysis on Climate Change in Zhucheng City of Shandong Province in Recent 50 Years

Objective] The aim was to analyze the characteristics of climate changes in Zhucheng City in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010.Method] The temperature and precipitation in Zhucheng City from 1961 to 2010 were chosen to analyze its annual and seasonal changes based on linear trend estimation method.Result] The average temperature in recent 50 years rose at a speed of 0.383 ℃/10a.The mean temperature in each season increased.As the temperature increase span in winter>autumn>spring>summer,the mean precipitation in recent 50 years decreased at a speed of 18.7 mm/10a,increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn.Temperature reduced most distinctly in summer at a speed of 20.9 mm/10a.Temperature reduction in recent 50 years appeared only for one year.Abnormal high temperature happened in seven years,after 1990s.In recent 50 years,only six years had abnormal precipitation and the annual total precipitation decreased,which indicated that the spatial distribution of precipitation was uneven.Conclusion] The study provided reference for the increase of temperature and accuracy of precipitation report.