四川省暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划研究

为了进一步完善四川省暴雨洪涝灾害评估工作，提高气象防灾减灾服务能力，以全省149个气象站1961—2010年逐日降水数据及高程、水系、农业经济等数据为基础，选取对暴雨洪涝灾害具有明显影响的降水强度、地形、河网、农业人口、耕地分布等要素作为区划因子，利用GIS工具分别建立暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性及抗灾能力评估模型，计算暴雨洪涝灾害风险指数，最终完成针对农业的四川省暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划。结果显示，农业经济最受关注的四川省盆地区内，盆东北、盆西南大部地区及盆中、盆南和盆西的部分区域灾害风险等级较高，容易发生致害性较强的暴雨洪涝灾害；而盆周高山区及深丘区是盆地暴雨洪涝灾害风险最低的区域，在这些地区暴雨洪涝灾害对农业生产的危害不大。

Research on Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Risk Zoning in Sichuan Province

In order to further improve the evaluation work of rainstorm and flood disaster in Sichuan Province and provide better services for disaster prevention, some factors such as rainfall intensity, terrain, water-system, agricultural population and farmland distributed were selected to study the relationship between them and the disaster, based on the digital topographic map of 1：50000 scale, river data, economic data and the daily rainfall data of 149 meteorological stations during 1961 to 2010. Then with the GIS technology, the synthetic disaster risk zoning models were developed to calculate the hazard risk factors, sensitivity of disaster environment, vulnerability of hazard affected body and disaster resistant ability. Finally, in the help of those models, the rainstorm and flood disaster risk index was clear. The result showed that： when taking Sichuan basin as the most importantly agricultural area, the northeast and southwest basin region belonged to the high or medium-high risk area, and part of the middle, west or south basin region belonged to the same risk zoning where the rainstorm and flood disaster happened frequently. It meant that, the local agriculture was suffered greatly in those regions. Meanwhile, the low risk and medium-low area included the mountain and hilly land in edge of basin, where was far from this disaster because of the higher terrain or less rainfall.