基于实物期权理论的企业设计创新投资时机研究

利用1994~2013年历年的煤炭消费和碳排放量数据，将BP神经网络方法应用于我国煤炭消费和碳排放量的预测，通过预测值和实际值的对比分析，预测了2014~2020年的煤炭消费量和碳排放量，预测结果表明：未来几年煤炭消费和碳排放量依旧呈递增趋势，且增长率均不会出现太大的变动。

A Study on Timing of Design Innovation Investment Based on Real Options Theory

Product design innovation has become crucial to developing and maintaining core competitiveness of enterprises. Design innovation in a company has the real option features under uncertainty, which have been merely analyzed in perspectives of economic and management. Then, the DCF method does not value the embedded management flexibility correctly. Consequently, a model of timing on a corporate design innovation is built based on real options theory. Furthermore, a case is given to demonstrate the reasonability and the feasibility of this method. Finally, on the basis of the above analysis, the paper gives some advice for concerned enterprises that they should take the whole embedded real options into account during the design innovation investment together with a DCF analysis, and grasp the optimal investment timing to ensure scientific decision-making.