江淮稻区稻纵卷叶螟异地预测预报

利用江淮稻区稻纵卷叶螟轨迹分析所确定的中、小尺度范围虫源地气象资料，对该稻区７个代表地点迁入代的迁入高峰日、高峰日蛾量和世代累计蛾量作了中期异地预测，组建了逐步回归模型，依此可以提前１－２月出预报，各代表地点的预测准确率均超过了７０％，同时，对选择合适的预测因子及预报方法作了深入的探讨，提出了异地预测的可行性及实际应用所存在的问题。并且进一步验证了轨迹分析得出的虫源地的准确性，为解决迁飞害虫的预测

SOURCE REGION PREDICTION OF CNAPHALOCROSIS MEDINALIS GUENEE IN HUAIHE AND CHANGJIANG RICE AREAS

The meteorological data on the mid-and small-size population source regions (such as Nanning and Shaoguan) which were determined or found out by trajectory analysis were used to predict the peek date of immigration and the adult number about one or two months ahaed of the practical occurrence in seven representative counties in Huaihe and Changjiang rice areas. Step-wise regression models were built, and the forecasting accuracy reached 70%. In addition, the methods of selecting forecasting factors and mathematic models were studied in detail. Also discussed were the practicability of using the data on the population source regions to make practical prediction in the production and the existing problems. Moreover, the paper supplied further evidence for the reality of the results of trajectory analysis, and it also played an important role in solving the forecasting problems of migratory insect pets.