| 用判别分析法预测早稻穗瘟流行程度的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈观浩,李前飞.用判别分析法预测早稻穗瘟流行程度的研究[J].江西农业学报,2002,14(1):37-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈观浩 李前飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广东省化州市病虫测报站,广东,化州,525100
2. 广东省化州市良种场,广东,化州,525127 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用判别分析法对 1 981～ 1 995年广东化州市早稻穗瘟的流行程度进行了分析 ,建立了早稻穗瘟流行程度的判别函数。经检验 ,判别效果显著 ,而且历史符合率达93 .3 % ,1 996～ 2 0 0 0年的预报准确率达 80 %。
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| 关 键 词： | 早稻穗瘟 判别分析 流行程度 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8581(2002)01-0037-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年10月8日 |
Prediction of Epidemic Degree of Neck Blast onEarly Rice by Discriminatory Analysis Method |
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| Abstract: | By applying discriminatory analysis method,the epidemic degree data of neck blast on early rice in Huazhou city,Guangdong province during 1981～1995 were analyzed,a discriminatory function of the epidemic degree of this disease was established.The verification results showed that the discriminatory function had significant effect,its historical coincidence rate in the period from 1981 to 1995 was 93.3%,and the forecast accuracy in the period from 1996 to 2000 reached 80%. |
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| Keywords: | Neck blast on early rice Discriminatory analysis Epidemic degree Prediction |
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