| 人口发展与城市化水平预测——以乌兰察布市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 金良,宝音,李百岁.人口发展与城市化水平预测——以乌兰察布市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(3):23-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金良 宝音 李百岁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 内蒙古财经学院经济学系,呼和浩特,010051;内蒙古气象经济研究所,呼和浩特,010051
2. 内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,呼和浩特,010020 |
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| 摘 要： | 科学预测人口城市化水平,对相关政策的制定、制度的改革、城市配套设施的建设以及解决就业问题都具有重要意义。本文以乌兰察布市为例,对地区总人口进行预测的基础之上,运用劳动力结构模型、劳动力地域转移模型等多种数学模型,预测了城镇人口城市化水平和非农业人口的城市化水平。最后,选取与城市化相关的七项指标,对城市化水平进行了综合预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口 城市化 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-7578（2007）03-023-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-12-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年12月11 |
Forecast of Population Development and Urbanization Level——A Case Study in Ulanchap City |
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| JIN Liang,BAO Yin,LI Bai-sui.Forecast of Population Development and Urbanization Level——A Case Study in Ulanchap City[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2007,21(3):23-27. |
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| Authors: | JIN Liang BAO Yin LI Bai-sui |
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| Institution: | 1. Inner Mongolia Finance and Economies College, Huhhot, 010051 ; 2. Inner Mongolia Institute of Meteorolngical Economy, Huhhot, 010051 ; 3. School of Geography of Inner Mongolia Normal University, Huhhot, 010020,China |
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| Abstract: | Forecast of population development and urbanization level is very important to institution of related policy,institutional reformation,construction of necessary urban facilities and resolution of employed problems.Based on forecast of population of Ulanchap city,the urbanization level of townish and non-agricultural population were forecasted by using mathematical models such as labor structural model and labor transferred model.At last,urbanization level was synthetically forecasted with 7 of related urbanization index. |
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| Keywords: | population urbanization level forecast model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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