广东省耕地利用质量评价、时空跃迁及障碍因子诊断

耕地利用质量是区域多种因素综合作用的结果,耕地利用质量提升是实现中国式现代化的重要粮食安全保障。该研究运用压力—状态—响应（pressure-state-response, PSR）框架、探索性时空数据分析（exploratory spatial temporal data analysis, ESTDA）与障碍度模型揭示2005—2020年广东省县域耕地利用质量的时空特征及诊断其障碍因子。研究表明：1）2005—2020年广东省耕地利用质量指数年均增长率为1.03%,说明区域耕地开发、利用与保护成效较好,并且耕地利用质量指数从高到低依次为山区、珠三角、东翼、西翼,而耕地利用质量指数增速从快到慢依次为珠三角、西翼、东翼、山区;2）珠三角、西翼与山区的部分县区耕地利用质量的空间结构波动较大,整体上耕地利用质量的空间结构具备较强的时空依赖性并兼具跃迁惰性与活性;3）人均农业产值、地形分布指数与地均农业产值是影响广东省耕地利用质量排名前3的障碍因子,充分表明资源禀赋依赖与社会经济结构是决定耕地利用质量的关键因素。为实现广东农业布局现代化与高质量发展,该研究提出持续推进现代农业产业园建设以充分发挥农业典型示范效应,遵循耕地资源的空间结构差异以有序推进耕地“非粮化”治理,以及依托全域国土综合整治积极探索承包地细碎化试点等政策建议。

Evaluation, spatial-temporal transition and obstacle factor diagnosis of cultivated land use quality in Guangdong Province

Cultivated land use quality refers to the degree to which it can meet human well-being under different environmental conditions and utilization. The comprehensive effect can originate from the background of regional natural resources, socio-economic environment, and cultivated land protection. An accurate evaluation of cultivated land use quality has been the theoretical and practical significance for food security in sustainable agricultural development. Among them, Guangdong Province is one of the most typical regions of agricultural transformation during rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this study, the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework and the exploratory spatial-temporal data analysis (ESTDA) were utilized to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land use quality in Guangdong Province at county scale from 2005 to 2020. The barrier model was also established to diagnose the obstacle factors. The results showed that the index of cultivated land use quality was gradually enhanced from 0.302 to 0.352 with an average annual growth rate of 1.03%, indicating a better overall improvement. There were also outstanding stages and regional differences. The index of cultivated land use quality was ranked in the descending order of the Mountainous area, the Pearl River Delta, East wing, and West wing. The growth rate was then ranked in the descending order of the Pearl River Delta, West wing, East wing, and the Mountainous area. 2) 49.09% of the total county-level units were found with a LISA (local indicators of spatial association) time path length greater than 1. By contrast, 70.00% of the total was represented by the county-level units with a LISA time path curvature smaller than the average. Meanwhile, 60.91% of the total county-level units shared the coordinated growth in the direction of time paths. Furthermore, there were significant spatial fluctuations in the land use quality of some counties in the Pearl River Delta, the western region, and the mountainous areas. Overall, the strong spatiotemporal dependence was observed in the spatial structure in the quality of land use, together with the transitional inertia and activity. 3) The top three factors hindering the cultivated land use quality were ranked as follows: per capita agricultural output value, terrain distribution index, and per unit agricultural output value. Correspondingly, the output efficiency of cultivated land and resource endowment were the main obstacles to the high cultivated land use quality. It is necessary to the vigilance against falling into the "comparative advantage trap" and the "generalization" of the cultivated land planting structure in the protection and utilization of cultivated land. Three policy recommendations were proposed to realize the agricultural layout modernization and high-quality development. Firstly, modern agricultural industrial parks can be constructed to fully leverage the exemplary effect of agriculture demonstration. Secondly, the "non-grain" governance of cultivated land can be orderly promoted to consider the spatial structural differences of land resources. Lastly, the pilot projects can be implemented to explore the fragmented contracting of land, particularly on comprehensive territorial management at the regional level.