中巴经济走廊气象水文灾害综合风险评估

全球变化背景下，中巴经济走廊地区气象水文灾害事件频繁发生，气象水文灾害风险评估对该地区防灾减灾具有重要的科学意义。该研究基于中巴经济走廊1961—2015年气象水文数据（最高、最低气温、降水）、标准化降水蒸散指数（standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index，SPEI）、地形数据（高程、坡度）等计算了暴雨、高温、低温、干旱、洪水五大灾种致灾因子危险性，结合人口密度、人口结构、耕地面积占比、农作物种植面积、道路密度以及GDP等承灾体数据，采用层次分析法和熵权法相结合的方法确定致灾因子危险性和承灾体脆弱性指标权重，利用风险矩阵法和Borda序值法开展中巴经济走廊气象水文灾害综合风险评估，并划分不同等级的风险区。研究表明：1）多灾种高危险性地区主要位于巴基斯坦信德省（Sindh）和旁遮普省（Punjab），约占中巴经济走廊总面积的9%。2）承灾体综合脆弱性计算结果表明巴基斯坦俾路支省（Balochistan）、信德省（Sindh）、旁遮普省（Punjab）以及开伯尔-普什省（Khyber Pakhtunkhwa）脆弱性等级相对较高，而中国喀什地区脆弱性等级相对较低。3）中巴经济走廊综合风险分布具有显著的空间异质性，高风险地区主要分布于巴基斯坦信德省、旁遮普省、巴基斯坦开伯尔-普什图省的部分地区以及俾路支省的西部地区。中巴经济走廊低、中低、中、高风险等级区域面积占比分别为14.09%、17.27%、37.70%、30.94%。在区县尺度上巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡（Islamabad）和拉合尔（Lahore）的综合风险等级最高，而中国乌恰县和巴基斯坦的加拉特县（Ziarat）的综合风险最低。评估结果可为中巴经济走廊气象水文灾害监测与防灾减灾提供技术参考。

Integrated risk assessment of meteorological and hydrological disasters in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is of great importance in the Belt and Road Initiative. Meteorological and hydrological disasters frequently occur under the background of global change in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor region. Risk assessment of meteorological and hydrological disasters can greatly contribute to disaster prevention and mitigation in this area. In this review, the integrated risk assessment was performed on the magnitude and likelihood of potential losses caused by hydrometeorological disasters (such as floods, droughts, terrestrial rain, and extreme high/low temperatures). Specifically, a systematic framework of risk assessment was constructed, where the hazards, exposure, and vulnerability were taken as the factors of increased risk, whereas, resilience was a factor of reduced risk. Meteorological and hydrological data was collected from 1961 to 2015, including the maximum and minimum temperatures, and precipitation, as well as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The terrain data (such as elevation and slope) was supplemented with socio-economic indicators, including population density, population structure, proportion of cultivated land area, cropped area, road density, and GDP. A weighted sum method was proposed to integrate the subjective analytic hierarchy process and objective entropy theory (analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight methodology), in order to obtain the weights of hazard and vulnerability indicators. Finally, the integrated risk assessment of meteorological and hydrological disasters was conducted using the risk matrix and Borda count method. The region was classified into different risk levels. The results indicate that: 1) The high-risk areas of hydrometeorological disasters were located mainly in Sindh and Punjab Provinces of Pakistan, covering approximately 9% of the total area of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. 2) The comprehensive vulnerability of the exposed elements showed that Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provinces in Pakistan shared relatively higher vulnerability levels, while Kashgar in China exhibited a relatively lower vulnerability level. The higher exposure level in Punjab was attributed to the high population density. The high sensitivity level was found in the eastern part of Sindh and the western part of Balochistan. However, the recovery capacity in Punjab was relatively high, which reduced the overall vulnerability. 3) Different regions of risk levels were divided using the risk matrix method. High-risk areas were distributed mainly in Sindh Province, the northern and southern regions of Punjab Province, the part areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, and the western region of Balochistan Province. Meanwhile, the low-risk areas were distributed mainly in Gilgit-Baltistan (northern region) of Pakistan and Kashgar region of China. The areas with the low, moderate-low, moderate, and high integrated risk levels accounted for 14.09%, 17.27%, 37.70%, and 30.94% of the total, respectively. The percentage of high-risk zones was 66.50%, 60.00%, and 47.57%, respectively, in Sindh Province, Azad Kashmir in Pakistan, and Punjab Province. 51 counties were classified as the high-risk category at the county level. Furthermore, the highest comprehensive risk levels were found in Islamabad and Lahore of Pakistan after risk elimination using the Borda count method, whereas, the lowest comprehensive risk levels were in the Wuqia County of China and Ziarat County of Pakistan. The findings can also provide valuable technical references for the prevention and mitigation of hydrometeorological disasters in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.