基于相对资源承载力改进模型的新疆各地州承载力分析

为进一步加强相对资源承载力研究的全面性与综合性，根据新疆的资源特点，建立了新疆各地州（市）相对资源承载力的评价指标体系，并结合资源的优势带动和劣势约束原则，对相对资源承载力模型进行改进，加入相对湿地资源承载力和相对林木资源承载力。利用改进后模型实证分析了新疆各地州（市）的相对资源承载力及其空间差异。结果表明：含有天然湿地和林木资源的相对资源承载力指标体系，可以多角度全方位地研究新疆的实际资源承载力状况。从各资源承载力的横向比较来看，经济资源承载力排在首位，天然湿地资源承载力排在末位，表明经济资源是新疆发展的相对优势资源，而天然湿地是新疆发展的劣势资源，这符合干旱区发展的特点。在全疆15个地州（市）中，承载状态为严重超载的有石河子市、喀什、和田、伊犁等4个地区，承载状态为非常富余的有巴州、克拉玛依市、阿勒泰、塔城、昌吉等5个地区。从严重超载度和非常富余度对比来看，新疆呈现出人口超载地区超载度较高，而人口富余地区富余度较低的特点。人口实际数量低于相对综合承载力的地区占全疆地州（市）总数的60％，其国土面积占全区总面积的64％，说明新疆大部分区域相对资源承载力状况较好，未来人口发展空间较大。

The Analysis of the Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources Based on Model Modifications in Xinjiang

The author established the relative carrying capacity of resources index system according to the characteristics of its resources in Xinjiang, in order to further comprehensively research the relative carrying capacity of resources, and improved relative carrying capacity of resources model based on the resource advantage drive and disadvantages constraint principle, joining the wetland resources and forest resources. Then, the relative resources carrying capacity of resources and the space difference of Xinjiang states (city) were analyzed by the improved model. The results showed that: the addition of natural wetland resources and forest resources and the relative carrying capacity of resources index system were studied from aspects of the relative carrying capacity of resources. The carrying capacity of resources from the horizontal comparison of view, economic resources capacity row in the first place, natural wetland resources capacity rowed at the bottom of that. Economic resources in Xinjiang was the development of relative advantage resources, and natural wetland resources in Xinjiang was the development of disadvantage the resource, which it accorded with the characteristics of the development of arid region. In Xinjiang, 15 ground state (city), the bearing status to serious overload of Shihezi City, Kashi, Hetian, Yili 4 regions, bearing status to very abundance of Bazhou, Karamay, Altay Region, Tacheng Region, and Changji, 5 areas. From the serious overload degree and very abundance degree contrast to see, Xinjiang around the state (city) presented population overload area overload degrees higher, the surplus population area surplus degree lower characteristics. The population was lower than the relatively comprehensive carrying capacity of all the additional state (city) the proportion of the number for 60%, these areas land area accounted for the 64% of the total area, Xinjiang area that most of the relative carrying capacity of resources condition was good, the future population development space larger.