干旱区生态弹性度与土地利用分析

【目的】 研究新疆鄯善县土地利用变化和生态弹性度,为鄯善县的生态建设提供参考。【方法】 采用GIS技术,生态弹性度,分析鄯善县近35年间生态弹性度和土地利用变化及生态效应,并利用Markov模型对2025年土地覆盖状况模拟预测。【结果】 鄯善县土地覆盖转换程度较大,土地利用指数变化比较明显。在一、二级分类对比情况下,1980~2015年土地利用动态指数的变化趋势,草地中动态指数最高的是中覆盖度草地、高覆盖度草地最低,林地中动态指数最高的是其它林地、灌木林和疏林地次之、有林地最低,水域中动态指数最高的是湖泊、水库坑塘最低;年均土地利用程度综合指数为109.38,各土地利用类型中只有林地面积和未利用地面积随年份减少,其他各土地类型面积随年份增加;各研究年分的生态弹性度分别为1.49、1.51、1.51、1.65、2.34,整体呈现增大趋势。鄯善县生态价值整体增长,土地生态价值的变化和土地利用类型面积的变化相互对应。2015~2025年耕地、林地、草地和建设用地面积在缓慢持续增加,水域出现少量减少的趋势。【结论】 鄯善县各土地类型剧烈转换,土地利用现状不稳定状态。生态弹性度和生态价值指数整体增大趋势,其中水域情况的改善会促进生态环境呈良性循环发展的趋势。

Ecological Elasticity and Land Use Analysis in Arid Areas —— A Case Study

【Objective】 In this project, the study area is Shanshan County, a city in the arid region, and its land use change and ecological elasticity are analyzed to put forward feasible suggestions and countermeasures for ecological construction in Shanshan County. 【Methods】 By using GIS technology and ecological elasticity, ecological elasticity, land use change and ecological effects in Shanshan County in recent 35 years were analyzed and discussed, and land cover in 2025 was simulated and predicted by Markov model. 【Results】 In Shanshan County, the degree of land cover conversion was large, and the change of land use index was obvious. Under the condition of first and second level classification and comparison, in the trend of land use dynamic index changes from 1980 to 2015, the highest dynamic index of grassland was medium coverage grassland, and the lowest was high coverage grassland. The highest dynamic index of woodland was other woodland, shrubbery and sparse woodland, followed by woodland, and the highest dynamic index of water area was lake, reservoir and pond. The comprehensive index of land use degree was 109.38, and among all land use types, only forest land area and unused land area decreased with the year, while other land types increased with the year; the ecological elasticity of each research year was 1.49, 1.51, 1.51, 1.65 and 2.34, respectively, showing an overall increasing trend. The ecological value of Shanshan County increaseD as a whole, and the change of land ecological value and the change of land use area corresponded to each other. The forecast showed that the area of cultivated land, forest land, grassland and construction land increasd slowly and continuously from 2015 to 2025, and the water area decreased slightly. 【Conclusion】 The land types in Shanshan County changed dramatically, and the land use status was not stable. The ecological elasticity and ecological value index increased as a whole, and the improvement of water area would be likely to promote the development of ecological environment in a virtuous circles.