用ORYZA_V3水稻模型模拟江西直播早稻的适宜性分析

以江西省2个主栽常规早籼稻品种中早35和中早39为试验材料，于2017年在南昌县进行8个播种期的早稻分期直播试验，各播期分别为3月11、16、21、26和31日，以及4月5、10和15日，其中定义3月11?26日为早播播种期（a），3月31日?4月15日为正常播种期（b），利用田间试验观测的生育期、叶面积指数、生物量等数据和气象资料，对ORYZA_V3水稻模型进行本地化调参验证，以分析ORYZA_V3水稻模型对江西直播早稻的适宜性。结果表明，ORYZA_V3水稻模型对直播早稻生育期模拟效果较好，其（决定系数）R2＞0.99，NRMSE（归一化均方根误差）在0.61%～3.12%范围波动。模型对早稻播种期叶面积指数、总生物量、穗生物量等模拟结果表现为播种期越早，模拟效果越差；越接近正常播种期，模拟效果越好。不同直播早稻品种对ORYZA_V3水稻模型适宜性存在差异，其中生育期模拟值与实测值中早35相差?1～1d，中早39相差?1～4d。说明用ORYZA_V3水稻模型进行双季直播早稻模拟时，需根据多年观测数据，对相应水稻播种期和品种进行模型参数的校准，以提高ORYZA_V3水稻模型适宜性。

Analysis on Simulation Adaptability of ORYZA_V3 Rice Model for Direct-Seeding Early Rice in Jiangxi Province

A direct-seeding experiment of early rice with 8 sowing dates was carried out in Nanchang county in 2017 and two main conventional early Indica rice varieties in Jiangxi province were was selected in this study. The 8 sowing dates were defined as early sowing (a: March 11, March 16, March 21, March 26) and normal sowing (b: March 31, April 5, April 10, April 15). Growth period, leaf area index, biomass and meteorological data observed in field experiments were applied to the ORYZA_V3 rice model to analyze the suitability of the ORYZA_V3 rice model for direct seeding of early rice in Jiangxi. The results showed that the ORYZA_V3 rice model simulates the growth period of direct-seeded early rice well with (determination coefficient)R2 >0.99, and the fluctuation range of NRMSE（normalized root mean square error） was between 0.61% and 3.12%. The simulation verification results of leaf area index, total biomass, and panicle biomass at the early sowing seeding period showed that the earlier the sowing date, the worse the simulation effected，and the closer to the normal sowing date, the better the simulation effected. The suitability of different direct-seeding early rice varieties of ORYZA_V3 rice model was different. Among them, the simulation value of the growth period of the early sowing and the measured value of Zhongzao 35 was differed from -1 to 1 days, and differed from -1 to 4 days in Zhongzao 39. Studies had shown that when the ORYZA_V3 rice model was used to simulate the double-cropping early direct-seeding rice, it was necessary to calibrate the model parameters of the corresponding rice sowing date and variety based on multi-year observation data to improve the local simulation effect of the ORYZA_V3 rice model.