农户绿色生产技术采纳行为及其效应——以测土配方施肥技术为例

为揭示农户绿色生产技术采纳行为决策的规律性和显化其行为效应，基于鄱阳湖平原6个产粮大县的607份调查数据，利用内生转换回归(ESR)模型实证分析了农户采纳测土配方施肥技术的影响因素及其采纳行为的经济和生态效应。结果表明:农户采纳测土配方施肥技术主要受到家庭总收入、耕种面积和信息获取渠道的正向影响，耕地破碎度和家离农技机构距离的负向影响。测土配方施肥技术的采纳有助于农户实现水稻的增产和化肥的减量化施用，表现为在反事实假设情景下，实际采纳该技术的农户若未采纳，其水稻单位面积产值下降6.38%、化肥施用量增加2.14%；实际未采纳该技术的农户若采纳，其水稻单位面积产值提高1.83%、化肥施用量减少1.00%。鉴于此，建议降低耕地破碎度，实现适度规模经营，加强技术的宣传推广，构建技术培训体系，显化技术效益，发挥技术的示范带动效果。

Farmers' adoption behavior of green production technology and its effects: A case study of soil testing and formula fertilization technology

In order to reveal the regularity of the decision of farmers'' green production technology behavior and its effect, based on a survey of 607 farmers from six major grain-producing counties in the Poyang Lake Plain, the endogenous switching regression(ESR)model was adopted. Factors affecting farmers'' adoption behavior of soil testing and formula fertilization technology and the economic and ecological effects of their adoption behavior were analyzed. The results show that: The adoption of soil testing and formula fertilization technology by farmers is mainly affected by the positive impacts of the family''s income, cultivated area and information acquisition channels, and the negative impacts of the fragmentation of cultivated land and the distance from home to agricultural technology institutions. The adoption of soil testing and formula fertilization technology will help farmers to increase rice yield and reduce chemical fertilizer application. Under counterfactual scenarios, if farmers who have actually adopted the technology did not adopt it, their rice output per unit will reduce by 6. 38%, the amount of chemical fertilizers will increase by 2. 14%. If farmers who have not actually adopted this technology adopt it, their rice output per unit will increase by 1. 83% and the amount of chemical fertilizers will reduce by 1. 00%. Based on this, it is suggested to reduce the fragmentation of cultivated land, realize moderate scale operation, and strengthen the publicity and promotion of technology. It is necessary to build a technology training system, show the benefits of technology, and give full play to the demonstration effect of technology.