我国水产品产量波动特征的多维度分析

【目的】分析水产品产量波动来源特征，以保持我国水产品市场稳定。【方法】利用同步强度系数法对1954-1985年和1986-2010年两个阶段水产品产量波动特征进行多维度分析。【结果】海水捕捞产量、海水养殖产量、淡水捕捞产量和淡水养殖产量对波动贡献水产品总产量的方差已降至4．64％、1．76％、0．27％和3．30％，表明水产品产量波动来源趋于稳定；淡水养殖产量成为水产品产量波动的第一大来源，波动贡献达到46％；淡水养殖产量和海水养殖产量与水产品总产量波动的同步系数达到1．0000，即可以在100％的概率下反映水产品总产量的波动方向。【建议】可通过构建水产养殖产量波动预警监测系统来提高制定调控政策的方向准确性和力度适宜性，从而保证水产品产量市场供给稳定。

Multi-dimensional research on output fluctuation of Chinese aquatic products

Objective ]The fluctuation characteristics of aquatic products were analyzed to help maintain the stability of aquatic products market in China. Method]Using synchronous fluctuation strength coefficient, the fluctuation character- isties of output of aquatic products in the two periods of 1954-1985 and 1986-2010 were assayed multi-dimensionally. Result]The variance of contribution to the fluctuation of marine fishing, marine aquacuhm＇c, freshwater fishing and freshwater aquaculture has reduced to 4.64%, 1.76%, 0.27% and 3.30%, which indicated that the fluctuation som＇ce of output of aquatic products was stable. Freshwater aquaculture became the most source of fluctuation, with the contribution up to 46%. The synchronization coefficient of freshwater aquaculture and marine aquaculture to total auatic products output was up to 1.0000, that is, it can reflect the fluctuation trend of the total number of aquatic products under 100% of proba- bility. Suggestion]A warning monitoring system should be built to improve tile accuracy of policy direction and intensity of suitability so that the supply of aquatic products could be stabilized in the market.