海南荔枝产量的寒害风险分析与区划

利用1990-2010年海南荔枝产量和气象资料,采用线性滑动平均、回归分析、信息扩散等方法,构建荔枝的理论收获面积模型和气象灾害指数,实现了寒害与其它气象灾害减产率的分离,并建立产量风险评价模型,结合地区间荔枝种植规模风险的差异,对海南荔枝寒害综合风险进行区划.结果表明：海南荔枝产量风险较高的区域主要分布于北部和中部,西北部相对较低,南部、东部和西南部沿海地区最低.种植规模风险较高的地区主要分布在中部、北部和东部.综合风险较大的地区呈带状分布,高风险区集中在中部和北部,其中海口、琼中和五指山风险最高,澄迈略低,东部、西部和南部的沿海地区风险最低.区划结果较好地反映了海南荔枝寒害风险分布的实际情况,可为荔枝合理布局、防灾减灾提供科学依据.

Analysis and Division for Risk of Cold Damage to Litchi Yield in Hainan

In this paper, the models for calculating theoretical harvest area and meteorological disaster index were first developed by using method of linear moving average, regression analysis, information diffusion based on litchi production and meteorological data from 1990 to 2010 in Hainan province. The relative contribution of cold weather hazard to the reduction rate of litchi yield was separated from different weather disasters. Then, the model of yield risk assessment for litchi was developed and used in risk division based on considering the difference of production scale between towns. The results showed that higher risk regions of litchi yield were located in the north and middle of Hainan, and the risk rank of northwest was lower than the former. The lowest risk areas were mainly located in the south, southeast and southwest coastal towns. However, the middle, north and east where litchi was widely plant. In most parts, the high level of cold damage risk grade distributed in the middle and north and looked like a belt. The risk in Haikou, Qiongzhong and Wuzhishan were the highest, and in Chengmai was low; the lowest risk occurred in east, west and south coastal areas. The consistency is well shown between the division and fact of cold-damage risk distribution for litchi, so the above results can be used to improve layout, prevent and reduce disaster as scientific foundation.