中国对东北亚木质林产品出口增长模式分析——基于三元边际模型的测算

东北亚地区是中国重要的木质林产品出口市场,但近年来中国对东北亚地区木质林产品出口增幅日益减小。文中选取2000-2015年中国对东北亚地区木质林产品出口贸易数据,利用三元边际模型分析中国对东北亚地区木质林产品的出口增长模式。结果表明,在2000-2015年中国对东北亚地区木质林产品的出口增长驱动因素中,出口数量始终是最主要的。为刺激中国对东北亚地区木质林产品出口再增长,应加强国内森林认证体系的发展,坚持林产企业供给侧改革,实现"数量价格双驱动"的出口增长模式。

An Analysis of China's Export Growth Mode of Timber Forest Products in Northeast Asia:Based on Ternary Marginal Model

Northeast Asia is an important market for China''s timber forest products, but in recent years China''s exports to northeast Asia have been declining. In this paper, we selected the data of China''s timber forest products export to this region in 2000-2015 and used the ternary marginal model to analyze the growth of China''s timber forest products export to Northeast Asia. The results showed that the export volume has always been the most important driving force in 2000-2015. In order to stimulate China''s forest products export growth to Northeast Asia, it is necessary to strengthen the development of domestic forest certification, continue the supply-side reform in forest products enterprises and realize the "double-driven" export growth mode by quantity and price.