土地利用/植被覆盖动态变化及其预测——以河北省涉县为例

本文以河北省退耕还林典型县涉县为研究对象，根据1999年和2007年2期TM影像资料和其它辅助资料，分析了涉县土地利用变化、区域差异特征和各类型之间的转化情况，并利用马尔可夫模型对2015年土地利用动态变化趋势进行预测研究。结果表明：河北涉县1999-2007年，因为退耕还林工程的实施，林地和高覆盖草地的面积有较大幅度增加，分别增长了6.41%和5.61%；耕地和中覆盖草地面积有较大幅度降低，分别减少了7.68%和4.60%；可以看出林地，草地和耕地是本地区土地利用变化的主导类型，与其他土地利用类型间的相互转化分布较广。到2015年林地和高覆盖草地持续增加，分别增长了2.00%和1.23%；耕地面积持续降低，减少了3.74%；林地，草地和耕地始终为主要的转化类型，占据主导地位，因此，合理利用与保护该区的林地，草地和耕地资源，是该区生态环境建设的必要途径。

Study on the change and prediction of the land use/vegetation dynamic—— taking the She county as example

Based on the typical county of returning farmland to forest of She county in Hebei Province as the research object, with the two phases of images in 1999 and 2007 and other auxiliary materials, we analysised the changes of land use, regional difference and the conversion between various types, and used markov model to predict the dynamic change trend of the land use in 2015. The results indicated that the She County in Hebei Province in the period of 1999-2007, the forest land and high cover grassland were greatly increased 6.41% and 5.61% respectively for the implementation of the returning farmland to forest project. Cultivated land and grassland were greatly reduced, and reduced 4.60% and 7.68% respectively. From the results we can see the forest land, grassland and cultivated land were the dominant types of land use change in this area, and they had widely mutual transformation with other types of land use. By 2015, forest land and high cover grassland would be increased the 2.00% and 1.23% . Cultivated area would be reduced steadily by 3.74% .Forest land, cultivated land and grassland were always the dominant types of land use change, which were the dominant positions, therefore, reasonable using and protecting the forest land, grassland and cultivated land resource were the necessary ways to construct the ecological environment in She county. Realized the dynamic monitoring of the ecological environment changes initially, we were conducted to provide a workable solution for the loess area of returning farmland to forest and grassland ecological environment investigation and dynamic monitoring.