农作物气象服务效益的评估方法——以河南商丘为例

以河南省商丘市3个代表乡镇作为评估单位,以德尔菲法作为评估方法,依据气象服务效益贡献率评估模型,对农作物各生产环节的气象服务效益进行分析和评估。结果表明,3个代表乡镇农作物气象服务效益的贡献率为6.9%;其中,对保护地经济类作物生产的贡献率为8.7%,对粮食类作物为5.8%。在粮食类作物的生产中,气象服务效益在拔节期和灌浆期两个生产环节中产生的效益最高,分别为1.67%和1.73%,约占整个生产环节气象服务总效益的59%;在保护地经济类作物主要生产环节中,气象服务在营养生长期和生殖生长期的效益较高,分别为33%和36%,约占整个生产环节气象服务总效益的69%。

Evaluation Method of Meteorological Service Benefit to Crops -A Case Study of Shangqiu, Henan Province

In order to evaluate meteorological service benefit to crops accurately and improve the capacity of agricultural disaster prevention and reduction, authors analyzed meteorological service benefit of all production sectors for crops, based on the assessment model of the contribution rate of meteorological service benefit by using the Delphi method, choosing three representative towns in Shangqiu city, Henan province as the assessment units. The results showed that the contribution rate of meteorological service benefit to crops was 6. 9% in all of the three towns ,in which the contribution rate of meteorological service benefit to economy crops production in the protected field was 8.7% , and the contribution rate of meteorological service benefit to the food crops was 5.8%. Moreover, meteorological service benefit showed peak effect during jointing stage and filling stage for food crops, which reached 1.67% and 1.73% respectively, occupying 59% of meteorological service gross benefit in the whole production sectors. The meteorological service benefit of economy crops in protected field showed peak effect during vegetative stage and reproductive growth stage ,which reached 33% and 36% respectively, occupying 69% of meteorological service gross benefit in the whole production sectors.