| 利用Markov 过程预测安吉土地利用格局的变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋文伟,管宇,刘彤,周国模,沈振明.利用Markov 过程预测安吉土地利用格局的变化[J].浙江农林大学学报,2004,21(3):309-312. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋文伟 管宇 刘彤 周国模 沈振明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江林学院 园林与艺术学院, 浙江 临安 311300;2.浙江林学院 理学院, 浙江 临安 311300;3.南京林业大学 森林资源与环境学院,, 江苏 南京 210037;4.浙江省临安市林业技术服务总站, 浙江 临安 311300 |
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| 基金项目： | 十五 浙江省重点资助项目(011037);浙江省教育厅高等学校青年教师基金资助项目(2003) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据浙江安吉山区2 个时期山地资源清查资料获得的土地利用类型数据, 成功地确定了土地利用类型的转移矩阵, 并用Markov 链模型预测了该山区土地利用类型变化趋势。结果表明, 当前该区的土地利用格局正处在一种荒山、农田、居民点及水域逐渐减少, 林地、果园用地逐渐增加的变化状态, 而且这种变化将持续很长时间, 最后达到以山区林地78.4 %为主体, 同时湿地在不断减少的新的土地利用格局。表3 参11
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| 关 键 词： | Markov 过程 土地利用格局 转移概率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-02-09 |
Forecast of land use pattern change in Anji County of Zhejiang : an application of Markov process |
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| JIANG Wen-wei,GUAN Yu,LIU Tong,ZHOU Guo-mo,SHEN Zhen-ming.Forecast of land use pattern change in Anji County of Zhejiang : an application of Markov process[J].Journal of Zhejiang A&F University,2004,21(3):309-312. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Wen-wei GUAN Yu LIU Tong ZHOU Guo-mo SHEN Zhen-ming |
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| Institution: | 1..School of Landscape Architecture and Art , Zhejiang Forestry College , Lin’an 311300, Zhejiang , China;2.. School of Science , Zhejiang Forestry College, Lin’an 311300, Zhejiang , China;3..College of Forest Resources and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University , Nanjing 210037 , Jiangsu , China;4.General Station of Forest Science and Technology , Lin’an 311300, Zhejiang , China |
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| Abstract: | Based on thd data obtained from fixed plots for continuously surveying mountainous resources during two different perods , thd transition probability of land use pattern in Anji district of Zhejiang was defined , and the tendency of its change was forecasted with application of Markov process .The results show that over a long period of time , the barren moutain area , the arable land area , water area and the area occupied by residence will be decreased gradually and forest land area and orchard area will be increased day by day .Finally , the land use pattern will be lied in a stable state .At that time , a new land pattern will be formed by dominance of forest land area of 78.4 %while wet land areas decrease more than ever . Ch , 3 tab .11 ref .] |
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