近50年来锦州地区气候变化对生态环境及农业生产的影响

利用一元线性回归、滑动平均、小波分析等方法,对锦州地区1956~2006年气温、降水、≥10℃积温、初霜日、终霜日、无霜期日数等资料进行了统计分析。结果表明,近50年锦州地区年平均气温以0.28℃/10年速度递增;≥10℃积温逐年增多;无霜期延长;初霜日提前;终霜日变化不大;降水以13.9 mm/10年速度递减;气候变化使锦州地区生态环境及农业生产均发生了不同程度的改变。

Effects of the Climate Variation on the Ecological Environment and Agricultural Production during the Past Half Century in Jinzhou Area

The statistical analysis was conducted based on the meteorological data such as temperatures,precipitation,annual accumulated temperature(≥10 ℃),first frost date,last frost date and frostless season in Jinzhou area from 1956 to 2006 by using simple linear regression analysis,moving average and wavelet analysis.Result showed that the average temperature increased at the rate of 0.28 ℃ every ten years in Jinzhou area during the recent 50 years.It was found that the accumulated temperature over 10 ℃ increased year by year,frostless season prolonged,first frost date came in advance,last frost date changed a little and precipitation decreased at the rate of 13.9 mm every ten years.The climate variation resulted in the ecological environment and agricultural production change in different degrees in Jinzhou area.