新疆精河气温、降水与径流量近51a变化分析

【目的】针对气候和水的变化研究已成为世界瞩目的热点,新疆属于干旱半干旱地区,对于新疆来说水资源极其重要,利用1957～2008年精河流域的气温、降水、河流年径流量数据对该流域的气候、降水、河流年径流量进行研究分析,为流域经济今后更好的发展提供服务。【方法】应用Excel软件和DPS软件对精河流域1957～2008年的气象数据及水文数据做数理统计分析。【结果】径流与降水的相关性较大,而气温对径流的影响较小,三者的年变化表现出一定的规律性。【结论】该区(1)年平均气温变化大,20世纪80年代后呈明显的上升趋势,气温时间序列的6 a周期较突出。(2)降水量波动变化大,年降水变化趋势呈波浪状分布,1957～2008年可分为三个阶段。(3)年径流量的年际变化大,与年降水量的变化趋势相似,呈波浪状。同时,年径流量会出现周期为4～5 a的稳定期。

Analysis on the Change of Temperature, Precipitation and Runoff in Jinghe, Xinjiang during the Recent 51 Years

【Objective and Method】 Research on climate and water change has become a focus point of the world.Xinjiang belongs to the arid and semi-arid area,therefore water resources is extremely important for Xinjiang. This paper analyzed the climate,precipitation and annual runoff trends of the Jinghe river basin by Excel and DPS,based on the 1957-2008 temperature,precipitation and runoff data of the area,which provided a theoretic basis for a better economic development of Jinghe river basin in the future.【Result】Evidently relativity existed between runoff and precipitation,while temperature had less effect on runoff,their annual change showed a certain regularity.【Conclusion】The research showed that:in this region(1) the average annual temperature changed remarkably and had an up trend after the 1980s and the temperature time sequence revealed a 6a cycle.(2) the precipitation had an evident fluctuant change and could mark in three periods between 1957-2008.(3) the annual runoff had a big interannual change,which is similar with the change in annual precipitation.In the meantime,the annual runoff would show a periodical stationary phase that last 4-5 years.