气候变化对中国水稻生产的影响研究进展

水稻生产系统是响应气候变化最敏感的农业生态系统之一,本文综述了当前和未来气候变化对我国水稻生产的影响。气候变化背景下,我国水稻生长季的热量资源增多,辐射资源减少,降水不均一性加大。高温热害、干旱、暴雨和洪涝灾害发生更频繁,这可能降低水、热资源的有效性。气候变化使我国单季稻和双季稻潜在种植边界显著北移,导致单季稻、早稻和晚稻的主要生育期缩短。基于统计模型和水稻生长模型的研究结果表明,如果不考虑品种改良和栽培技术的进步,气候变化使单季稻、早稻和晚稻产量下降,但不同稻作区和方法间存在差异。我国水稻生产重心北移、实测生育期延长和产量增加的变化趋势,反映了水稻生产系统通过种植分布调整、品种改良和技术改进来适应气候变化的能力。未来气候变化将进一步导致水稻生育期缩短和产量下降,对我国水稻生产和粮食安全带来严峻挑战。仍需加强气候变化影响机制的研究及其在影响评估中的应用,减小影响评估的不确定性并增加其系统性,为制定有效的应对策略提供可靠的理论支持。

A review for impacts of climate change on rice production in China

Rice production system is one of the most sensitive agricultural ecosystems in response to climate change. Here, we reviewed the effects of current and future climate change on rice production in China. Over the past few decades, the thermal resources during rice growing seasons showed an increasing trend, while solar radiation resources showed a decreasing trend and the precipitation’s heterogeneity increased. The frequencies of high temperature stress, heavy precipitation, drought and flood increased, which may lower down the effectiveness of hydrothermal resources. Climate change has led to a significant northward shift of potential planting boundaries for single and double rice production systems, resulted in a negative impact on the length of growth period for single rice, early rice and late rice. The researches based on statistical models and process-based crop models showed that climate change hampered rice production of China. Most reports indicated a reducing trend of yield caused by climate change for single rice, early rice and late rice, but there were still some differences in results from different methods and rice cropping regions. The trends of prolonging growth period and increasing yield are a reflection of the capability of rice production system in China to adapt to climate change, through regulating planting regionalization and improving variety and culture technics. The impact assessment with different climate scenarios showed that the projected growth period of rice would shorten and projected yield would decrease in future. That means climate change will seriously challenge the rice production and food security in China. For further study, deeper understanding of abiotic stress physiology and its incorporation into ecophysiological models, reducing the uncertainty and extending the systematicness of impact assessment are the important research areas that require much attention.