天津市需水量预测研究

需水预测关系到对未来水资源供需紧张程度的认识,不仅是不同水平年水资源供需的重要环节,也是城市规划、供水规划和实现水资源可持续发展的一项基础工作。天津市是严重资源型缺水城市,科学、有效的需水量预测研究就尤为重要。本文以1991-2005年统计数据为基础,通过比较多种预测模型,选用指数模型和移动平均数法建立城市需水量综合动态模型,预测到2020年,天津城市总需水量将达到26.91亿m3。在此基础上,分析了提高城镇人均工业产值和农村人均农业产值增长率,对工业和农业需水量的影响。结果显示,在保持高工业增长条件下,保持适当的农业产值增长,可缓解对水资源造成压力。

Prediction of Water Demand of Tianjin

The prediction of water demand is necessary for understanding the requirement and supply of water resources,and for planning the development of city and economy to keep the sustainability of water resources.Tianjin severely suffers the shortage of water resources.It is very important to predict water demand scientifically and effectively.Based on the data of 1991-2005,an exponential model for predicting the water demand of Tianjin is proposed in this paper. The model predicts the water demand of Tianjin is 2.691 billion m3in 2020.Furthermore,the dependence of the water demand on the increase rates of industry output per capital of town residents and agricultural output per capital of farmers are analyzed.It is found out that the pressure of water supply caused by high industrial development can be reduced by keeping a suitable agricultural increase rate.