北京市蔬菜价格波动的影响因素和评估及政策建议

近年来蔬菜价格的大幅上升引起广泛重视,一度成为政府宏观调控的重点。本文采用2002-2011年北京市批发市场价格数据,以菠菜和黄瓜为例,分析了蔬菜市场价格变化规律。采用多元线形回归模型,分析了天气、油价、批发市场上市量和季节性变化对菠菜和黄瓜价格的影响程度。结果表明,油价已经成为影响北京市蔬菜价格上涨的主要因素,油价每L上涨1元,菠菜和黄瓜价格分别上升0.37元/kg和0.32元/kg;季节性变化是决定年度内蔬菜价格高低的根本性因素;监测和调节批发市场上市量水平将对平抑蔬菜价格波动起到重要作用。应关注和调控油价上升对蔬菜价格的影响;增强和改进设施蔬菜生产的科技含量和生产效率;加强对北京市及其主要进京蔬菜产地气象的联合监测和发布。

Analysis and Evaluation of Vegetable Price Fluctuation Influencing Factors in Beijing and Suggestions on Policy

Vegetable prices increased substantially has attracted wide attention in recent years, and became the focus of government macro-control. Based on the 2002-2011 wholesale market price data of Beijing, it analyzed the variation of the vegetable prices, spinach and cucumber prices as an example. With multiple linear regression model, it analyzed the impact of the weather, oil prices, the amount and seasonal changes in the price of spinach and cucumber. The results showed that the oil price has become the major factor of affecting vegetable prices, which increases by 1 and spinach and cucumber by 0.37 RMB and 0.32 RMB respectively; the seasonal change is a fundamental factor to determine the level of vegetable prices in the year; monitoring and regulation of the wholesale market level of the amount listed will play an important role to stabilize the fluctuations in the vegetable prices. We had to regulate the rise in oil prices on the prices of vegetables; to strengthen and improve the facilities for scientific and technological content and efficiency of the vegetable production; to monitor and disseminate meteorological information of Beijing and its main Beijing vegetable origin.