中国粮食产量波动影响因素实证分析

基于最小信息准则采用扩展ADF法对1949-2004年中国粮食及水稻、小麦、玉米产量数据进行平稳性检验，结果表明：其在原始序列水平上均为平稳时间序列；采用TARCH模型与EGARCH模型对以上数据的增长率数据进行非对称性检验，结果表明，波动具有“杠杆效应”，负面影响比等量正面影响导致更大波动；根据扩展C—D函数运用1978-2004年中国粮食生产相关数据构建了粮食产量波动影响因素实证模型，结果说明，投入变动对粮食产量波动有同向影响，经济作物比较收益情况对粮食生产有反向作用，粮食本身收益情况并非影响生产的关键因素，粮食生产对气候等自然条件依赖性较强。

Positive Analysis of Influencing Factors of Grain Output Fluctuation in China

Based on minimum information rule,this paper tested the datum stationarity of total grain and rice,wheat,corn output from 1949 to 2004 in China using additive ADF,the result indicate that they are all smooth time series according original series level;had taken nonsymmetrical test of the growth rate of datum through TARCH and EGARCH model,it can draw a conclusion that fluctuation has lever effect and negative effect made more fluctuation than equal positive effect;has made a model of impacting factor on our grain output fluctuation according to additive C-D function using datum about grain production from 1978 to 2004,it showed that the input change has the same trend with grain output fluctuation,the comparative advantage of cash crop be reactive to grain production,the grain income is not the key for production,grain production has more dependence on nature condition such as weather and so on.