| 北方农牧交错带气候变化对农作物生产力影响的诊断分析-以定西县为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 李广,黄高宝.北方农牧交错带气候变化对农作物生产力影响的诊断分析-以定西县为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(1):104-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李广 黄高宝 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院
2. 甘肃农业大学农学院,兰州,730070 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据北方农牧交错带(定西县1970-2000年)的气候资料,分析了该地区30年来气候变化周期、趋势及其农作物气候生产力的变化。研究结果表明:气温有上升而降水呈减少的态势,并且都具有7年的准周期,预计在下一个周期平均气温可能会增加到7.88℃,而降水将减少到377.7mm。在温度升高而降水不变的情景下,温度每升高1℃,农作物生产潜力增加69kg/hm2.a;相反情况下,降水每减少1mm,生产潜力减少9.7kg/hm2.a。研究农牧交错复合生态系统气候变化及农作物生产力对气候变化的响应且有非常重要的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 北方农牧交错带 气候变化 农作物生产力 诊断分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-7578（2006）01-104-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-07-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年7月2日 |
Analysis on Climatic Change and Crop Productivity in the Northern Farming-Pastoral Area-Case study of Dingxi County |
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| LI Guang,HUANG Gao-bao.Analysis on Climatic Change and Crop Productivity in the Northern Farming-Pastoral Area-Case study of Dingxi County[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2006,20(1):104-107. |
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| Authors: | LI Guang HUANG Gao-bao |
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| Abstract: | According to climate data(1970-2000) in the northern farming and pastoral area,the research analyzed the climate change cycle,trend and grassland climate productivityabout 30 years.The results of researchshow that temperature has a trend of increasing,precipitation has a trend of reducingand their cycles are of 7years.The temperature will be increasedto 7.88℃andprecipitation will be reduced to 377.7mm in the next period.In the condition of increasing temperature and fixed precipitation,the grassland productivity will be increased by 69 kg/hm~(2)·awhen the temperature is increasedby 1℃.By contraries,the grassland productivity will be reduced by 9.7 kg/hm~(2)·awhen the precipitation is reduced by 1mm.The relationship research of crop productivity and climate change provides the science foundation for agricultural sustainable development in the northern farming and pastoral area. |
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| Keywords: | climate change farming-pastoral area in the northern China crop productivity |
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