气候变化对浙江水稻生产影响的集合模拟分析

生长模型耦合气候模式模拟是研究气候变化对农业生产影响的有效途径。本文基于3种典型浓度路径排放情景（RCP）下11个国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）全球气候模式（GCMs）的气候预估结果，以1971-2000年观测资料作为气候资料基准值（baseline），利用LARS WG天气发生器形成包含RCP26、RCP45、RCP85情景下2050s（2041-2060年）和2070s（2061-2080年）时段的气候预估逐日数据集合，分析了浙江省杭州、金华两个代表站点的气候资源变化特征，以气候模式耦合水稻机理模型ORYZA2000方法，集合模拟评估了气候变化对浙江水稻生产的影响。结果表明，未来浙江代表站点杭州和金华的平均气温均会升高，预估2070s时段杭州、金华分别平均升温1.65～3.56、1.75～3.67 ℃，高温热害发生加剧。在仅考虑未来气候变化的条件下，随着温度升高，代表站点的水稻生育期相对基准期缩短。不考虑CO2浓度增加对水稻产量的肥效作用，无论早稻、晚稻、单季稻，其产量相对于基准年份均普遍减产，且高排放情景下的减产幅度明显大于低排放情景。

Ensemble simulation of impacts of climate change on rice production in Zhejiang Province

The methodology integrating crop models and global climate model are important tools to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. The characteristics of changes on agricultural climate resources and the impact of climate change on rice production in Zhejiang Province were explored with ensemble simulation of 11 global climate models （GCMs） under 3 representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios from the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 and the ground observation data. Climate projections for 2050s period （2041-2060） and 2070s period （2061-2080） under RCP26， RCP45， RCP85 scenarios were stochastically downscaled to local scale ensemble daily weather data using the LARS WG weather generator. The local ensemble weather data were applied as input in rice simulation models ORYZA2000. It was shown that the mean temperature for Hangzhou and Jinhua during 2070s would increase by 1.65-3.56， 1.75-3.67 ℃， respectively， and the rice heat damage would become more serious. Ensemble simulation result indicated that the growth duration of rice in representative site would be shortened due to the accelerated rice development under climate warming. Without direct effect of CO2 elevation， the rice yield would decrease as compared to the baseline， and higher yield decrease was simulated under high RCP climate scenarios with greater temperature increase.