黑龙江干流水质评价与预测

为探究黑龙江干流水质对居民生活和农业灌溉用水的影响,选择溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数、氨氮和p H四项监测指标作为研究对象,对漠河北极村、大兴安岭呼玛、黑河和伊春嘉荫四个断面过去一年每周水质监测数据进行预处理,运用物元综合评价模型,对黑龙江干流水质做出综合评价。然后根据监测结果,采用灰色预测模型对相应地区未来26周的各项监测指标进行预测。结果表明:漠河北极村、大兴安岭呼玛断面水质主要为Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类,黑河断面水质主要为Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类,伊春嘉荫断面水质主要呈Ⅰ类和Ⅲ类。漠河北极村、大兴安岭呼玛断面未来26周水质较好,黑河断面高锰酸盐浓度较高,伊春嘉荫断面高锰酸盐与氨氮浓度均较高。研究表明:黑龙江干流水质基本可以满足居民生活和农业灌溉用水需要,运用物元分析法和灰色预测模型对水质进行评价及预测是可行的。

Evaluation and Prediction of Water Quality of Heilongjiang River Based on Matter Element Analysis Method and Grey Prediction Model

In order to explore the effect of water quality of Heilongjiang River on domestic water and agricultural irrigation,the four indexes,including dissolved oxygen,permanganate index,ammonia and pH,are selected as the analysis objects,the weekly water quality monitoring data over the past year of the four sections,including Mohe Arctic village,Daxinganling Huma,Heihe and Yichun Jiayin,is pretreated,and the matter element analysis model is used to comprehensively evaluate the water quality of main stream of Helongjiang river.Based on the monitoring result,the grey forecast model is used to predict the monitoring indexes of the regions in the next 26 weeks.The evaluation results show that:the water quality of the Mohe Arctic village section and the Daxinganling Huma section is mainly class I and class Ⅱ,the water quality of Heihe section is mainly class Ⅱ and class Ⅲ,and the water quality of Yichun Jiayin section is mainly class I and class Ⅲ;over the next 26 weeks,the water quality of the Mohe Arctic village section and the Daxinganling Huma section will be good,the potassium permanganate concentration will be high in the Heihe section,and both the potassium permanganate and ammonia concentration will be high in Yichun Jiayin section.The study results show that water quality of Heilongjiang River can basically meet the need of domestic water and agricultural irrigation;it is feasible to use the matter element analysis method and grey forecasting model for water quality evaluation and prediction.