小麦纹枯病流行预测的研究

作者根据小麦纹枯病在冬麦区发生具有明显阶段性的特点,利用1984～1993年连续10年在纹枯病常发区山东省文登市的多品种、多地点的病情系统调查数据,采取统计学和流行学相结合的方法,组建了具有预测秋苗冬前发病率和返青后生长期病情指数的回归模型。并通过对小麦纹枯病普遍率和病情指数相关性的研究,将二阶段的模型耦联,完成对小麦整个生长期的病害流行动态全过程的预测。

STUDIES ON THE EPIDEMIC PREDICTION OF WHEAT SHARP EYESPOT

The systematic disease data of wheat sharp eyespot (Rhizoctonia cerealis) was collected from multi-cultivar and multi-site investigations in Wendeng, Shandong Province, where wheat sharp eyespot occurs yearly, in 1984 - 1993. We built up two regress equations for predicting the incidence before winter and the disease index (DI) after reviving based on the phasely occurrence of the disease in winter wheat areas. The correlation of the general incidence and the disease index were studied. The models that describe the two phases were coupled so that the prediction of the whole course of the disease dynamics during the whole growing period was complete.