| 自适应指数平滑预报模型在灌区需水量预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 阮本青,王成丽. 自适应指数平滑预报模型在灌区需水量预报中的应用[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 1996, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 阮本青 王成丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南新乡黄委会引黄灌溉局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文详述了指数平滑预报模型建模原理，并根据灌区需水量预报的具体特点，着重探讨了模型的自适应控制及模型参数的选取和初值的确定方法。实例预报结果表明，把自适应指数平滑预报模型应用于灌区需水量预报中是可行的。
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| 关 键 词： | 灌区，需水量，预报，自适应，指数平滑 |
The Use of the Adaptive Control Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model for Water Demand Forecast in An Irrigation District |
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| Ruan Benqing, Wang Chengli. The Use of the Adaptive Control Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model for Water Demand Forecast in An Irrigation District[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 1996, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | Ruan Benqing Wang Chengli |
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| Abstract: | The principle for building exponential smoothing model is given in the paper.The adaptive control method of forecasting model, the selection of model parameter and method for determining initial value of parameter and so on are studied in detail on the basis of the specific feature of water demand forecast on an irrigation district. The forecasting results of the case study has proved that the adaptive control exponential smoothing forecasting model suits water demand forecast in irrigation districts. |
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| Keywords: | Irrigation district Water demand Forecast Aptive control Exponential smoothing |
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