| BAYES多级判别技术在预测蚕豆赤斑病流行程度上的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁世飞,李照会.BAYES多级判别技术在预测蚕豆赤斑病流行程度上的应用[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版),1997,28(2):173-177. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁世飞 李照会 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东农业大学基础部，山东农业大学植保系，山东农业大学基础部 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据Ｂａｙｅｓ多级判别技术，以长江流域蚕豆赤斑病流行程度和气象资料为研究对，３个判别方程，通过对历史资料的回检及独立样本的预测，为害虫种群动态的中长期预测提供了一种的研究方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 蚕豆 赤斑病 判别方程 预测 |
THE APPLICATION OF BAYES DISCRIMINATORY TECHNIQUE ON FORECASTING THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF INSECT PESTS |
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| Ding Shifei.THE APPLICATION OF BAYES DISCRIMINATORY TECHNIQUE ON FORECASTING THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF INSECT PESTS[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University,1997,28(2):173-177. |
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| Authors: | Ding Shifei |
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| Abstract: | According to BAYES discriminatory theorm,the author deduced three discriminatory eduations forecasting epidemic level of favism on broad bean by meteorological data of Changjiang.The results to test the pest data showed that the fitting rate was 95%,and tha accuracy of forecast was right.This new method may be also be tried for the mid-term or long-term forecasting of other the population dynamics of insect pests. |
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| Keywords: | favism discriminatory eduation forecasting |
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