Gompertz增长模型在林产品产值预测中的应用

应用增长模型的理论和方法，根据《临安五十年》中的统计数据建立Go mpertz增长模型γ=6exp[-5.8020e^-0.3679t]，并对临安市的林产品的产值进行预测。预测结果与实际值的相对误差仅为00082%相关指数达到0.9992，表明模型与实际值拟合程度很好，达到了较高的精度，预测方法简便易行，具有实用意义。模型也可用来预测经济林产量和资源消耗量等，为林业生产、经营及技术更新提供决策依据，提高管理上的宏观调控能力。图3表1参4。

Application of Gompertzincrease model to prediction of forestry product value

By the theory and method of increase model，with statistical datain Fifty Years of Linan，the Gompertz increase model y＝6exp[－5.802 0e－0.3679t] was established，which predicted the output value of forest products．The model corresponded more to practicality and attained high rigidity．The relative error was 0.008 2% between prediction and actual value，correlative index was 0.999 2．This predicting measure is simple and easy to use，and has practical significance，it can also be used in predicting the output of cash forests and the volume of forestry resource consumption etc．It offers decision warranty and raises the power of general control for forestry management．