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基于情景模拟的暴雨内涝危险性评价——以浦东新区农业用地为例
引用本文:张华.基于情景模拟的暴雨内涝危险性评价——以浦东新区农业用地为例[J].现代农业科技,2011(12):19-21,24.
作者姓名:张华
作者单位:上海师范大学地理系,上海,200234
摘    要:危险性评价是灾害风险评价的重要前提。特殊的地理位置和气候条件使暴雨内涝成为上海市的频发灾害。以浦东新区为例,基于情景模拟,借助GIS空间分析方法、构造模型,利用危险性指数对暴雨内涝灾害影响下的农业用地进行危险性评价。结果显示,在6种不同情景下,各镇的危险性存在差异。危险性指数高值分布在孙桥镇、曹路镇、机场镇和川沙镇,低值分布在张江镇、高桥镇和花木镇。该评价结果可为浦东新区防灾减灾提供科学依据。

关 键 词:暴雨内涝  农业用地  危险性评价  上海市  浦东新区

Hazard Assessment on Rainstorm Water-logging Disasters Based on Scenario Simulation:A Case Study on Agricultural Land of Pudong New Area
Authors:ZHANG Hua
Institution:ZHANG Hua(Department of Geography,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234)
Abstract:Hazard assessment is an important prerequisite for disaster risk assessment.Special geographical location and climatic conditions make rainstorm water-logging as a scourge of Shanghai.Taking Pudong New Area as an example,the hazard assessment was the basis of risk assessment for natural disasters,with the assistance of Geographic Information System(GIS),based on the method of scenario simulation,the construction of mathematical models,the water-logging hazard index was developed to make a systematic compari...
Keywords:rainstorm water-logging  agricultural land  hazard assessment  Shanghai City  Pudong New Area  
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